Our model gives Sacramento Republic a 60% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Lexington.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sacramento Republic have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Lexington have done so in 1 of their last 3.