Our model gives São Paulo a 60% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Club Bolívar.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, São Paulo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Club Bolívar have done so in 4 of their last 7.