Our model gives Ryūkyū a 30% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 46% for Sagamihara.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ryūkyū have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sagamihara have done so in 1 of their last 2.