Our model gives Rubin Kazan a 21% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 54% for Spartak Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rubin Kazan have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Spartak Moskva have done so in 4 of their last 4.