Our model gives Rostov a 29% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 44% for Lokomotiv Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rostov have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Lokomotiv Moskva have done so in 1 of their last 5.