Our model gives Rodina Moskva a 33% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 39% for Rostov.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rodina Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Rostov have done so in 1 of their last 1.