Our model gives Rodina Moskva a 37% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Orenburg.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rodina Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Orenburg have done so in 3 of their last 5.