Our model gives Rodina Moskva a 29% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 43% for Baltika Kaliningrad.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rodina Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Baltika Kaliningrad have done so in 1 of their last 3.