Our model gives Rodina Moskva a 50% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Akron.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rodina Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5, and Akron have done so in 4 of their last 5.