Our model gives Roasso Kumamoto a 34% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 37% for Matsumoto Yamaga.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Roasso Kumamoto have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Matsumoto Yamaga have done so in 0 of their last 1.