Our model gives River Plate a 51% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Vélez Sarsfield.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, River Plate have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Vélez Sarsfield have done so in 1 of their last 3.