Our model gives Rionegro Águilas a 49% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Llaneros.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 37% likelihood against 63% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rionegro Águilas have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Llaneros have done so in 1 of their last 2.