Our model gives Rionegro Águilas a 66% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Boyacá Chicó.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rionegro Águilas have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Boyacá Chicó have done so in 1 of their last 2.