Our model gives Rijeka a 37% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Hajduk Split.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rijeka have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Hajduk Split have done so in 5 of their last 5.