Our model gives Riga a 88% chance to win this one, against 8% for a draw and 4% for Ogre United.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 80% likelihood against 20% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Riga have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Ogre United have done so in 2 of their last 2.