Our model gives Riga a 82% chance to win this one, against 11% for a draw and 6% for FC Daugavpils.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Riga have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and FC Daugavpils have done so in 1 of their last 3.