Our model gives Richmond Kickers a 39% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Charlotte Independence.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Richmond Kickers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Charlotte Independence have done so in 2 of their last 3.