Our model gives Örgryte a 18% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 59% for Sirius.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Örgryte have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Sirius have done so in 3 of their last 4.