Our model gives Respublika a 25% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 52% for Metallurg.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Respublika have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5, and Metallurg have done so in 2 of their last 4.