Our model gives Respublika a 13% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 68% for Aral.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Respublika have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Aral have done so in 0 of their last 3.