Our model gives Reipas a 50% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 31% for PPJ.

Both teams are projected to score in 72% of simulations, against 28% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 75% likelihood against 25% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Reipas have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and PPJ have done so in 3 of their last 3.