Our model gives Real Monarchs a 44% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Ventura County.

Both teams are projected to score in 70% of simulations, against 30% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Real Monarchs have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Ventura County have done so in 2 of their last 3.