Our model gives Real Cartagena a 71% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Tigres.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Real Cartagena have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Tigres have done so in 0 of their last 2.