Our model gives Rancho Santana a 7% chance to win this one, against 13% for a draw and 80% for Real Estelí.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rancho Santana have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Real Estelí have done so in 1 of their last 3.