Our model gives Rancho Santana a 6% chance to win this one, against 11% for a draw and 83% for Managua.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rancho Santana have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Managua have done so in 3 of their last 3.