Our model gives Raków Częstochowa a 38% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Hajduk Split.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Raków Częstochowa have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5, and Hajduk Split have done so in 5 of their last 5.