Our model gives Racing Club a 53% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Sarmiento.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Racing Club have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Sarmiento have done so in 3 of their last 3.