Our model gives Rīgas FS a 63% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Liepāja.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rīgas FS have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Liepāja have done so in 3 of their last 4.