Our model gives Rīgas FS a 87% chance to win this one, against 9% for a draw and 4% for Grobiņa.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Rīgas FS have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Grobiņa have done so in 2 of their last 2.