Our model gives ÍR a 32% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 48% for Fylkir.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, ÍR have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Fylkir have done so in 0 of their last 1.