Our model gives Quiché a 53% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Santa Lucia.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Quiché have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Santa Lucia have done so in 3 of their last 4.