Our model gives Queensland Lions a 51% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 29% for Peninsula Power.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Queensland Lions have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Peninsula Power have done so in 2 of their last 3.