Our model gives Queensland Lions a 60% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 22% for North Sunshine Eagles.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Queensland Lions have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and North Sunshine Eagles have done so in 0 of their last 3.