Our model gives Queen's Park a 38% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Ayr United.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Queen's Park have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Ayr United have done so in 2 of their last 4.