Our model gives Qizilqum a 52% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 21% for Mash'al.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Qizilqum have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Mash'al have done so in 2 of their last 4.