Our model gives Qarabağ a 57% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Safa.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Qarabağ have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3.