Our model gives Qarabağ a 81% chance to win this one, against 13% for a draw and 6% for Kapaz.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Qarabağ have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3.