Our model gives Qabala a 23% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 50% for Neftçi.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Qabala have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Neftçi have done so in 0 of their last 1.