Our model gives Pyunik a 54% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Sardarapat.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Pyunik have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Sardarapat have done so in 2 of their last 2.