Our model gives Puerto Nuevo a 19% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 52% for Sacachispas.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Puerto Nuevo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Sacachispas have done so in 0 of their last 4.