Our model gives Puebla a 21% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 54% for Toluca.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Puebla have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Toluca have done so in 1 of their last 1.