Our model gives Prospect United a 46% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 31% for Hurstville.

Both teams are projected to score in 65% of simulations, against 35% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Prospect United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Hurstville have done so in 2 of their last 3.