Our model gives Progresul a 39% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Voința.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Progresul have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Voința have done so in 2 of their last 2.