Our model gives Preston Lions a 71% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 13% for Dandenong Thunder.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Preston Lions have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Dandenong Thunder have done so in 1 of their last 2.