Our model gives Portuguesa a 39% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Metropolitanos.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portuguesa have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Metropolitanos have done so in 3 of their last 3.