Our model gives Portsmouth a 38% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Blackburn Rovers.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portsmouth have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Blackburn Rovers have done so in 2 of their last 2.