Our model gives Porto a 69% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 10% for Alverca.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Porto have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Alverca have done so in 1 of their last 2.