Our model gives Portland Timbers a 46% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Minnesota United.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portland Timbers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Minnesota United have done so in 0 of their last 2.