Our model gives Portland Timbers a 52% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Atlanta United.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portland Timbers have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Atlanta United have done so in 2 of their last 2.