Our model gives Portland Hearts of Pine a 45% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Forward Madison.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Portland Hearts of Pine have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Forward Madison have done so in 3 of their last 5.